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2009. El Genoma Electoral Chileno – Observatorio Político Electoral UDP
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2009. El Genoma Electoral Chileno

 

genoma

Editores: Patricio Navia, Mauricio Morales y Renato Briceño

¿Qué forma tiene el mapa genético electoral de los chilenos? ¿ Somos un electorado de centroizquierda? ¿O somos adversos al cambio? ¿En qué medida el legado de la dictadura nos sigue marcando? ¿Qué patrones de cambio y continuidad existen entre 1990 y 2009? ¿Hay diferencias entre cómo piensan y votan los jóvenes y cómo lo hacen los adultos?

En este libro bosquejamos un mapa de la composición genética del electorado chileno. El genoma electoral de un país evoluciona constantemente y está, en definitiva, construido a partir de la agrupación de preferencias de individuos que pueden decidir su voto influidos por variables muy distintas.

De hecho, el electorado hoy es distinto al de hace una década y ciertamente diferente al del Chile previo a 1973. Precisamente porque sabemos que las preferencias del electorado evolucionan, sólo podemos especular sobre lo que ocurrirá en las próximas elecciones. A diferencia de los seres humanos, el genoma electoral de un país puede ser modificado por las campañas políticas y por eventos accidentales o fortuitos. Así, encontramos aquí patrones que explican tanto la predominancia de la Concertación como la evolución en las preferencias políticas desde 1989.


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